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October 2023 El Niño Update: Forecasters Expect El Niño Will Continue Through the Spring, With a 75-85% Chance it Will Become a Strong Event

October 15, 2023 – By Emily Becker – El Niño is currently purring along in the tropical Pacific. Forecasters expect El Niño will continue through the spring, with a 75-85% chance it will become a strong event. A stronger El Niño—definition to follow shortly—means it is more likely that we will see El Niño’s expected thumbprint on winter temperature and rain/snow patterns around the world.

The tiger’s stripes

First, the numbers. Our primary metric for the growth of El Niño is the temperature of the ocean surface in the Niño-3.4 region, a box in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. Specifically, the anomaly, the difference of this temperature from the long-term average (long-term = 1991–2020). (Why here? Several decades ago, this region was found to have the strongest relationship with tropical atmospheric changes.) In September, the Niño-3.4 Index was 1.6 °C (2.9 °F), according to the ERSSTv5, our most reliable sea surface temperature dataset.

line graph showing Nino-3.4 temperature anomaly

2-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for all events evolving into El Niño since 1950 (gray lines) and the current event (purple line). NOAA Climate.gov image based on a graph by Emily Becker and monthly Niño-3.4 index data from CPC using ERSSTv5.

El Niño is a coupled system, meaning the ocean and the tropical atmosphere are working together to continue and grow the El Niño event. The average air circulation pattern over the tropical Pacific, called the Walker circulation, brings rising air, clouds, and storms over the very warm water of the far western Pacific, west-to-east winds high up in the atmosphere, descending air over the eastern Pacific, and the east-to-west surface winds called the trade winds. In the case of El Niño, the warmer-than-average surface water in the central-eastern Pacific leads to more rising air over that region, weakening the Walker circulation.

The atmospheric half of El Niño is clearly showing its stripes. All the signs of a weakened Walker circulation are present, including more rain and clouds over the central-eastern Pacific, slower trade winds and upper-level winds, and drier conditions in Indonesia and the far western Pacific. Taken collectively, the ocean surface and the atmospheric conditions tell us that El Niño will stick around for the next few months at least.

map showing September 2023 global ocean temperature anomaly

September 2023 sea surface temperature difference from the 1985-1993 average (details from Coral Reef Watch). Much of the global oceans are warmer than average. NOAA Climate.gov image from Data Snapshots.

The lion’s roar

Since we’re sure El Niño will be operating into the winter, the next question is “how strong will it get?” Strength definitions, which usually also use the Niño-3.4 Index, are unofficial, since it’s not like an El Niño with a peak Niño-3.4 Index of 1.5 °C is going to have noticeably different impacts than one with a peak Niño-3.4 Index of 1.4 °C. However, as I mentioned above, the stronger the El Niño, the more likely it will affect global temperature and rain/snow patterns in expected ways. This is because a larger sea surface temperature change leads to a larger shift in the Walker circulation, making it more likely that El Niño will affect the jet stream and cause a cascade of global impacts.

The unofficial definition of a strong El Niño is a peak 3-month-average Niño-3.4 Index of at least 1.5 °C. El Niño is a seasonal phenomenon, and that 3-month-average Niño-3.4 Index (called the Oceanic Niño Index or ONI) is important for making sure that the oceanic and atmospheric changes persist long enough to affect global weather and climate. A peak ONI of 2.0 °C or more is considered “historically strong,” or “very strong.” We’ve only seen four of these in our historical record, dating back to 1950.

Forecasters give this event a high chance of qualifying as a strong event, based on our climate model predictions and the current conditions. “Hey wait,” you’re saying. “Isn’t the September Niño-3.4 Index already 1.6 °C?” And indeed it is, but the 3-month-average for July–September was 1.3 °C. That said, we have a 75% chance that the ONI will reach or exceed 1.5 °C in November­–January (typically the peak season).  We actually have a slightly higher chance, 83%, that we will reach that threshold in September-November, which is on our doorstep.

So how about peaking at or above 2.0 °C? Forecasters give that around a 3-in-10 chance for November­–January. The climate models have a fairly wide range of potential outcomes—if they were concentrated above 2.0 °C, we’d probably be able to give more confident chances. Also, while there is still a good amount of heat under the surface of the Pacific—this warmer water provides a source to the surface—it’s not quite at the level we’ve seen during previous historically strong El Niños like 1982–83, 1997–98, or 2015–16.

scatterplot showing relationship between September subsurface tropical Pacific temperature and November–January oceanic ENSO conditions

Each dot on this scatterplot shows the subsurface temperature anomaly (difference from the long-term average) in the central tropical Pacific each September (horizontal axis) since 1979 versus the oceanic ENSO conditions the following November–January (vertical axis). The vertical red line show the September 2023 subsurface temperature anomaly. The amount of warmer-than-average water under the surface in September has a strong relationship with the oceanic ENSO conditions later in the year. Previous very strong El Niño events, 1982–83,1997–98, and 2015–16, had more subsurface warm water than 2023. Data from CPC, image by Climate.gov.

This is a small sample of very strong events, though, and the current moderate subsurface temperature certainly doesn’t preclude this event peaking above 2.0 °C. It just contributes to a tempering of the odds.

The leopard’s spots

One more thing I wanted to cover this month—the temperature of the global oceans is still running way above average, with startling records in recent months.

graphs showing global ocean temperature

Non-polar (60 °N – 60 °S) global averaged sea surface temperature from 1982-2023 from (top) daily OISSTv2.1 and (bottom) monthly ERSSTv5 datasets. The thick black lines represent the 1982-2011 average across the calendar year; 2022 (orange line), 2023 (thick red line), and 2016 (the year of record warmth before 2023; thin red line) are highlighted. The thin grey lines represent all other years. Both graphs indicate that the last few months have experienced record global ocean warmth. NOAA Climate.gov image based on graphs by Boyin Huang and data from NCEI.

We last featured these graphs, kindly provided by Dr. Boyin Huang of the National Centers for Environmental Information, in May. They show two different datasets, one with daily values and one with monthly averages. Whenever we see something really extraordinary, like the recent records, we want to be sure it’s not a data error. Checking two different datasets provides confirmation that this is a real feature.

The extreme warmth in the global oceans—also noticeable in the map I showed above—means this El Niño is operating in a different world than earlier El Niño events. For example, the Atlantic hurricane season is often on the quieter side overall during El Niño, but this year has already seen an active season, with 18 named storms, as the very warm North Atlantic Ocean has provided lots of fuel.

Cat nap

We’re never going to sleep on the ENSO job! Check back later this month for a post on El Niño and snowfall patterns, and I’ll be back in November to update you on all things El Niño.


ENSO Blog

A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Niño, La Niña, and their impacts.

Disclaimer:

The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (University of Miami/CIMAS), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors.

Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov.

Source: ENSO blog team

 

 

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Historic Conservation Funding for California’s Farms, Ranches, and Wetlands Available – Apply by November 13, 2023

Interested agricultural landowners have until November 13 to apply for the available funding

October 6, 2023 – USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)  is currently accepting applications for the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Interested landowners have until November 13, 2023 to apply for this special funding through IRA. Applications will compete nationally and must meet target conditions and be located within the identified National Priority Areas.

“We are excited to support California’s producers with an historic investment in climate beneficial conservation this Fiscal Year,” said NRCS California State Conservationist Carlos Suarez. “With the addition of the Inflation Reduction Act, we will be able to help landowners conserve and protect a great number of prime farmlands, ranchlands, and healthy wetlands for the benefit of all.”

The NRCS Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP) helps landowners, land trusts, and other entities protect, restore, and enhance wetlands or protect working farms and ranches through conservation easements. ACEP has two components:

  • Agricultural Land Easements (ACEP-ALE) help private and tribal landowners, land trusts, and other entities such as state and local governments protect croplands and grasslands on working farms and ranches by limiting non-agricultural uses of the land through conservation easements.
  • Wetland Reserve Easements (ACEP-WRE) help private and tribal landowners protect, restore and enhance wetlands which have been previously degraded due to agricultural uses.

IRA prioritizes eligible land that will most reduce, capture, avoid, or sequester carbon dioxide, methane, or nitrous oxide emissions. For Fiscal Year 2024 (October 1, 2023 through September 30, 2024, the following program-eligible areas are prioritized:

ACEP-WRE

  • Highly organic soils that will optimize the soil carbon sequestration potential and prevent increased greenhouse gas emissions through the maintenance of existing non-cultivated areas, restoration of previously cultivated areas to perennial vegetative cover, and restoration of the natural hydrology to keep the soils saturated and anaerobic.
  • Prior converted or degraded wetlands that will be restored to native riparian forests.
  • Approved localized priorities: a) Montane wet meadows and b) Ephemeral wetlands.

ACEP-ALE

  • Program-eligible agricultural lands currently classified as grassland or native vegetation (e.g. sagebrush) where NRCS has identified a high threat of conversion to a non-grassland use.
  • Program-eligible cropland or grassland where NRCS has identified a high threat of conversion to a non-agricultural use.
  • Active agricultural rice cultivation on subsiding highly organic soils.

ACEP-WRE includes permanent easements that pay 100 percent of the easement value and restoration costs, and 30-year easements that pay up to 75 percent of the easement value and restoration costs.  ACEP-ALE includes permanent easements based on a fair market appraisal of the easement value as determine by an independent appraiser. Application will compete nationally for available funding through the IRA.

While NRCS accepts ACEP applications throughout the year, the agency plans to make Fiscal Year funding decisions from the pool of applications funded through IRA by December 22, 2023. As with all NRCS easements, the landowner retains the title to the land, and the right to control access and recreational use. The land remains on the tax rolls.

For more information on ACEP, landowners can contact their local NRCS Service Center or visit here.

Since its inception in 1935, NRCS has worked in partnership with private landowners and a variety of local, state and federal conservation partners to deliver conservation based on specific, local needs.

Source: NRCS

 

 

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Cal OES Reminds the Public a Nationwide Emergency Alert Test is Planned for Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Nationwide Alert Blog

October 2, 2023 – “This is only a test.”

That’s the message everyone nationwide will receive on Wednesday, October 4.

To help ensure the national alert and warning system is ready to provide timely, accurate information during the next disaster, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) will conduct a nationwide test at approximately 11:20 a.m. PT on Wednesday, October 4.

This 1-minute test alert sent to TVs, radios and smartphones is similar to the weekly or monthly testing that happens on a local and regional level. The message that appears on phones will read: “THIS IS A TEST of the National Wireless Emergency Alert System. No action is needed.”

The message sent to smartphones will display in either English or Spanish, depending on the language settings.

No action is required by the public. This alert is simply a test of a robust readiness system should a nationwide alert be necessary in the future.

While this test is being conducted nationwide by FEMA, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) serves as the lead for alert and warning within California and works closely with local partners across the state year-round to ensure they are protecting the public by meeting national standards for performance.

Source: Cal OES

 

 

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CAL FIRE Establishes New Training Program to Increase Defensible Space and Home Hardening Efforts

Expansion of assessment and education program will help increase wildfire resilience in the State Responsibility Area 

September 26, 2023 – Sacramento, CA – CAL FIRE – Office of the State Fire Marshal (OSFM) has established a statewide Cal fireprogram to allow qualified entities to support the Department in its defensible space and home hardening assessment and education efforts. Qualified entities are local, or state government agencies, academic staff, or other approved organizations who have undergone the new OSFM Defensible Space Assessment Program training detailed below.

These qualified entities, with the authorization of the Director of CAL FIRE, are eligible to undergo training to conduct defensible space and home hardening assessments within the State Responsibility Area. This includes educating property owners about wildfire safety improvements that may be undertaken to harden a structure and make it more resistant to wildfire and assessing whether wildfire safety improvements have been completed on or around a structure.

“This program will be a force multiplier in our efforts to assist homeowners statewide in achieving compliance with defensible space and home hardening,” stated Chief Daniel Berlant, Acting State Fire Marshal. “Defensible space, coupled with home hardening, is essential to improve your home’s chance of surviving a wildfire. Expanding our state’s efforts through the use of this program will result in a more wildfire resilient California.”

Qualified entities that have community momentum built around defensible space are being targeted for inclusion in the initial stages of this program. A pilot program has been established using trained personnel from the El Dorado County Fire Safe Council with the first Defensible Space and Home Hardening Assessor course being taught in April 2023.

“El Dorado County’s Fire Safe Councils are very appreciative of the assistance and direction CAL Fire has given to them”, stated Hugh Council, Vice Chair of the El Dorado County Fire Safe Council. “The Fire Safe Councils look forward to continuing to assist their communities with defensible space and home hardening assessments to ensure necessary steps are taken to make their county fire safe.”

The California Conservation Corps (CCC) will host a training for its Corpsmembers and staff in the Fall of 2023. The CCC will start assessments on state facilities located in Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zones working down to Moderate Fire Hazard Severity Zones. After the assessment, CCC will be conducting vegetation reduction projects around each of the state facilities, bringing them into compliance with the defensible space standards.

“The CCC looks forward to helping our communities become more fire-resilient,” stated CCC Director Bruce Saito. “Our Corpsmembers will learn skills that can lead to meaningful careers in fire prevention. And, most importantly, they’ll have the personal knowledge of how to keep their own homes and neighborhoods safer from wildfire.”

OSFM’s training program will provide consistent training for qualified entity assessors, who will provide nonregulatory assistance to homeowners to reduce fire risk and achieve compliance with defensible space requirements. The training will also ensure that all defensible space and home hardening assessment and education programs undertaken by the department and by qualified entities are conducted to the same standard and use coordinated messaging, including messages at www.readyforwildfire.org. Upon an individual’s successful completion of the training program, the department shall issue a certification of completion to the individual.

If you are a member of a local government or qualified entity, as defined in PRC 4291.5, you may request the Model Defensible Space Program and Inspection Platform or the Qualified Entities Assessment Platform using this form: https://forms.office.com/g/FwpYJrM20d.

This program will create more face-to-face interaction and educational opportunities between homeowners and individuals who are trained in defensible space and home hardening; ultimately creating a more wildfire resilient California by increasing public knowledge of scientifically proven home hardening and defensible space best practices.

To learn more about the Defensible Space program, visit: https://www.fire.ca.gov/dspace.

Source: CAL FIRE

 

 

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